What does 62% actually mean?
On Kalshi and Polymarket, a price is a probability you can buy. This site has the free calculators, fee tables and state rules from 62% Chance, the beginner’s guide by sportsbook trader Armando Acevedo.
Free tools
Each one uses the platforms’ published formulas, checked October 20, 2026.
- Kalshi fee calculatorTaker and maker fees, break-even and your edge on any trade.Open
- Polymarket fee calculatorPolymarket US’s new rate and every polymarket.com category.Open
- Edge and bet sizeHow much a trade is worth to you, and how much to put on it.Open
- Odds converterCents to American and decimal odds, and a sportsbook’s margin removed.Open
- State-by-state legal mapWhere Kalshi and Polymarket US are open, blocked or in court.Open
- Trading journalThe journal and 30-day challenge sheets, plus a forecast scorer.Open
How a prediction market works
Every share pays $1 or nothing
A Yes share pays $1 if the answer is yes. A No share pays $1 if it’s no. One Yes and one No always add up to the same dollar.
The price is the probability
If Yes trades at 62¢, traders think it happens about 62 times in 100. You make 38¢ if you’re right and lose 62¢ if you’re wrong.
The fee moves your break-even
Kalshi’s taker fee at 62¢ is about 1.65¢ a share, so Yes only pays if it happens more than 63.65% of the time.
The book
Prediction markets let you buy a share in almost anything: an NFL game, a Fed decision, Saturday’s rain. Millions of people now trade on Kalshi and Polymarket. Most of them lose, and most don’t know why.
62% Chance is written for complete beginners by a trader who spent 25 years setting the prices bettors play against. It follows one new trader, Ana, from her first look at a price to a tested trading plan, with real numbers on every page.
- What a price means, and why 62% fails 38 times in 100
- Every fee on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the dead zone where no trade pays
- How to borrow a sportsbook’s sharp prices to find an edge
- How much to put on one trade, and why beginners bet too much
- What millions of trades say about long shots, makers and takers
- The legal map, taxes, scams and when to stop
Paperback, hardcover and Kindle. In Mexico, the Kindle edition is on Amazon.com.mx and the print editions ship from Amazon.com.
Questions people ask
What is a prediction market?
A marketplace where you buy and sell shares in the answer to a yes-or-no question, like “Will the Fed cut rates in December?” A Yes share pays $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if it isn’t. Its price, between 1¢ and 99¢, works as the crowd’s estimate of the probability. Read the full guide.
What does a 62% chance mean on Kalshi or Polymarket?
It means Yes shares are trading near 62¢. Traders as a group think the event happens about 62 times out of 100. It also means it fails about 38 times out of 100, so a 62% event not happening is normal, not a sign the market was wrong.
How much does Kalshi charge per trade?
Kalshi’s taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up. On 100 contracts at 50¢ that is $1.75. Some series also charge a smaller maker fee. Work out any trade with the Kalshi fee calculator.
Is Kalshi legal in my state?
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC, but several states are fighting it in court. As of October 20, 2026, its sports contracts were blocked in Michigan, Nevada and Washington. See the state-by-state table.
Can I lose more than I put in?
No. When you buy a share, the most you can lose is what you paid for it, plus the fee. There is no bill afterward. You can lose all of it, though, and most traders lose money over time.
Is this site financial advice?
No. It is education: calculators, current rules and plain explanations. It never tells you what to trade. Check each platform’s own pages and your state’s law before you deposit.
If it stops being fun
Free and confidential. You can call before anything is wrong.